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Monday, 6 August 2018

Weird choices which expose you weirdly

Consider a situation in which you have to choose one option- 
You have a sure chance of getting 900$ 
You have a 90% chance of getting 1000$
Which would you choose?
I tested this out on couple of friends and I found out that almost 80% of them would opt for the first choice. They would rather have a sure thing than risk a chance of gaining nothing. 
The problem I saw here was the people being very afraid of that 10% probability coming true. It is virtually impossible for it to happen and they would rather settler less than risk a higher gain. I feel like this is the kind of thinking I detest and this thinking will cause one to remain mediocre for the rest of their life. Another factor which led me to taking risk was that even if the 10% does come through, I am not losing money and I will remain the same. Sure there will be some regret, but a businessperson must learn to handle this.

Consider this situation- 
A sure loss of 900$ 
A 90% chance of losing a 1000$ 

Here, my friends opted for the risk of losing 1000$. 
This seemed weird to me. Why would they change their opinions on risk aversion and risk opting in the situations. Ideally, they should have chosen the same for both. 
The thing that irked me is that they answered without thinking. If you go to see, the chances of you not losing any money is only 10% and that is almost never possible. Even though the value of the loss is more for the second case, people still hang onto that ray of false hope that they will be the 10%. Everybody considers themselves different and they all try to think differently. But what they miss out in this journey is to think hard. They think with their automatic system, leaving nothing to common sense, which of course is hard to come by nowadays. Personally, when I looked up this experiment, I chose a sure loss and a risk for gaining.

Consider this: a coin is tossed:
If heads, you win 200$
If tails, you lose 100$
Is this gamble attractive? 
To understand this, you must assess how you would feel for both cases and compare them. Most of the test subjects did not find this attractive at all because they were more afraid of losing the 100$ than winning the 100$. This is generally and automatic response.
However, if you change the value the winning to 2000$, then everybody will jump onto the deal. All of a sudden, the loss, which is the same in both cases, is forgotten about and everybody is happy to risk money. These are the same people who opted for a sure gain and risked a higher loss. 

here, the human greed component comes in where humans would forego the loss part and jump for the gain. The truth is still that you have a 50% chance of losing. But if that were to come true, they would not mind it in the second case but would get enraged in the first case. 

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