why you always guess the wrong number of beans in a jar

Have you ever played the carnival game where you have to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar? If you have, I’m pretty sure you got the number wrong. I am also sure that you were off by a large amount. I am also sure that the average of all the guesses made by the participants was dead close the the actual answer. 

That is the magic of averages. You are always wrong! 

But do not worry because everybody is wrong as well. The only reason an answer for the game can actually be correct is either you are lucky, or a large number of people guess different answers causing their average to be close to the answer. 

Averages are the deadliest things in economics. We use averages to decide important things like government policies, rationing, etc., but more than often, we go astray when we follow averages. 

The reason is that the average represents a number which is the middle number of a cumulation of all the possible answers or values. The problem arises when there is an outlier or a number which is and extremity. Lets consider this example: 

Marks in accounts for 5 children in a class are- 44, 48, 47, 46, 99. 

The average accounts marks of the class is 57. This makes sense but the problems arise when you are to assess how good the class is in accounts. If you are given the average without any more information, you would assume that the class is fairly decent with a 57. However, this is incorrect. Just because one person got 99/100, the whole average is skewed in its favour raising it to 57. This causes a massive standard deviation causing incorrect analysis of how good the accounts class is. 

This problem is pertinent in macroeconomics as well. While calculating the average per hectare wage, if a few areas in the country have a massive outlier value as compared to the other areas, grave errors can be made during assessment. 

So don’t believe in averages. Averages may seem nice for some people like a struggling batsman who has a poor strike rate the whole season. If in the last few matches, his rate explodes, the whole average changes in his favour. 

But this is just one case. Averages seem to be an easy way out in solving problems. One does not need to individually scan through all the data and can just make a judgement from the averages. But that is the easy way out, and as I always write- an easy way-out will never lead you anywhere. Look out for outliers, they will lose you lots of money on betting.

diplomacy and escaping remarks part 1

This blog is in two parts 

My commerce teacher keeps telling my classmates that they ‘butter her up’ or suck up to her. She is aware that they do this and often laughs it off. My friends often compliment her with a crooked smile, especially when they are on the verge of falling into trouble. Even if they do fall in trouble, they continue talking sweetly and smoothly to the teacher. I must admire their perseverance and their high success rate of escaping trouble by talking smoothly. 

Delving deeper into this idea, I asked myself what converted a normal conversation into a smooth or sweet talk. I soon concluded that the only reason that Rahil or Ishaan ever get away from trouble is because they frame their sentences in a particular way. 

Framing, or the way of saying things, is and essential part of society. Without framing, sales would never have existed, countries would be crushed due to the lack of diplomacy, and my friends would have probably been expelled. 

The way you frame sentences can have a huge effect on the next few moments or even the far future. Words are like bullets- once shot, they never return to your clip. So we must use them wisely. 

Consider the two statements-

Adolf Hitler was born in 1887.

Adolf Hitler was born in 1889.

If these two sentences were placed in two random places in a random essay, and I asked you to tell me when Adolf Hitler was born, you would most probably say 1887. This would, of course, be incorrect as he was born in 1889. The reason you were led to believe that he was born in 1887, was that the sentence is in bold. 

Consider the following example: your task is to say whether each word is lowercase or upper case-

upper

lower 

LOWER

Upper

UPPER

Lower

LOWER

Upper

I am sure that you were able to blitz past this exercise. Identifying the left column was very easy. But, the right column made you think for a bit and your immediate response could have been wrong. This activated the thinking part of your brain. 

We often get confused when we see something that is somewhat off. A written example can be- green yellow orange.

There is no particular solution to this problem but the best way to avoid this is to look real hard. We let the autonomous part or our brain work for most of the time. The brain works on autopilot. Ever so often, wee see something wrong and out thinking part turns on. We should aim to always have out thinking part of the brain working. 

A twist story

Warren was a boring man with a boring job. He always wanted more from life and a 9 to 5 job just did not seem to make the cut. 

He worked in the big apple in a big company as a supervisor. However, business was slow, so staring out of the window wistfully seemed to be a daily part of the job. 

It was a few days before Christmas and the office was let out early so that workers could be with their families for the holidays. Warren was neither married nor in a relationship. It seemed to be a lonely walk back home, up until he crashed into a dark figure. The dark figure turned out to be a tall man in a black trench coat. The handsome blonde face had crashed into warren causing his briefcase to break open, spilling out all the papers which it contained. The tall, blonde handsome man apologised and bent down to pick it up, wrinkling his very expensive shirt and trousers. It took a while finding some papers which conveniently flew away because of the wind. After the joint effort, the man apologised for his actions and asked warren to share dinner with him. Warren was to refuse but only takeout sat in his refrigerator back home, so he agreed to eat with the kind man.

They stopped by a very posh diner to eat the famous cheeseburger. Over dinner, the man introduced himself as a wealthy stock market broker by the name of John. Putting his hand on his mouth as if to cover his lips, John leaned over and told warren that his best friend has recently discovered an untapped gold reserve in borneo. To warren it seemed like nothing, but the best friend was a gold miner and John interpreted this only as a sign to get rich by investing in his friend’s company- “JONATHAN AND CO.” warren knew next to nothing about investing and share markets but John seemed to be a trustworthy person and money was tight at home, so he wanted in. 

John could only gladly agree and decided to settle the deal at his office the next day. 

The next day, John met up with warren and they headed to john’s office. It took a train ride to reach there as it was pretty far from where warren lived. Warren came to wonder why John was roaming around near warren’s office so late at night if he worked so far away. Nevertheless, it did not matter as warren would get rich soon. The office was a small building and looked far older for its age. It was only three years old and it looked as if it was part of the second world war. The interiors were even more bland with white walls and wooden desks and barely any furniture, just as one would expect a failing company to have. How could John afford such an expensive lifestyle?

As this thought crossed warren’s mind, he found himself seated on a table with John and two other men who seemed to be john’s colleagues.

Throughout the meeting, warren was hit with a library’s worth of business jargon and he finally agreed to invest a sum of $40,000 into this plan. 

Over lunch, John and one of the colleagues Abel began discussing boxing as they were enthusiasts. The discussion turned into an argument and ended in John betting Abel $1000 that he would beat Abel in a boxing match. The bet was accepted and both of them looked at warren to be an impartial referee.

That day, the deal was finalised and warren payed his investment amount in cheque to John and the four people went to a local boxing ring to have the bout. John was athletic and seemed to dominate the match. The ring was small and the room was also small with only one door leading outside which could be locked from inside and outside. Warren paid attention to the boxers. suddenly, Abel threw a clumsy punch which landed hard on john’s face. Blood spurted out as John fell on the mat. Warren began counting but John never woke up. He bent down and began shaking John which caused blood to stain on his shirt. John wasn’t breathing. Abel screamed in terror and ran towards the door. The other colleague called the police, and in the mayhem also ran out of the room. Warren could not leave the body and was momentarily surrounded by police who blamed him for murder because he had blood on his shirt and nobody else was around. 

Warren was given a life sentence. In all the mayhem, he had forgotten about the $40,000. He spent a week alone in prison until the jailer rang him and told him that he had a visitor. Slowly, he walked to the talking booth with the two policemen arrested him and saw a dark figure on the other side of the transparent wall. The figure wore a black trench coat and a hat. Removing his hat, a blonde John revealed his face and smiled. One policemen shook warren. In shock, warren turned, only to see Abel. Blood froze in Warren’s veins, refusing to flow. Everything was a scam. Warren’s life was over.

Syria or Zayn Malik?

There always comes a time in a writer's life when he or she asks herself a very certain question. This question came to mind as well and I asked my self- “Am I the same as a newspaper or am I my own writer?”

Let me start by saying that I consider myself very very different from your average media source. 

To me, the newspapers are very one sided or biased. They gather their information according to what the readers enjoy the most. For example, lets say that a large number of readers of newspaper X enjoy reading articles about celebrity doing absurd things over war and peace news. 

Then newspaper X would rather post many more articles of Britney meltdowns. 

We say that things today can be very personalised when we choose it to be. This is true for even media which adheres to the golden rule: “consumer is king.” However, though the consumer is king, it seems that there is a higher motivator than providing news to the king- money. Money is the reason you see more actor related news than Syria related news. Money is the reason you see sooooo many advertisements instead of relevant articles. Money is the reason these companies work. 

Its true that without money, media companies would go under and it is essential for any business to make money, but in the path of making money, the media companies have forgotten the true essence of journalism- to provide transparent news. 

Providing useless news can be traced back tot he incentive super response bias. The blame, on one side of the coin, is the consumer’s as well. Out generation of readers has become very lethargic and information about serious issues has seem to have taken the backseat behind entertainment news. The consumers put out a want for entertainment news. At that time the amount of entertainment news and serious news was balanced out. The news companies saw this want and capitalised aggressively on this and with time, we saw the massive showbiz takeover our regional news outlets. 

The donkey reacted intensively to the carrot dangling in front of it. 

Today, very few (if any) independent media outlets exist which are not driven by monetary desires and just want to project clear and true news.

I feel like small bloggers like me are one of them. I just want to tell you my mind and am not really interested in making gains from my blog. If I were, you’d see my blog filled with advertisements. I do give my opinion on topics, but that goes only as far as your first ear. To remove it from your other ear or not is your decision

MY FRIEND BOUGHT OFF-WHITES OMG OMG OMG OMG

Have you noticed the headline brands today? Off-White? Supreme? Or Yeezys and Nike Airmax? There is high chance that you must have on Instagram because every next post is somebody wearing them and flexing the clothes and shoes. It is as if wearing them is a social status symbol and anybody who cannot afford it. It seems as if one person bought a Supreme hoodie and everybody thought it was cool and a herd formed which overdosed on the brand as if it was a drug. A few people who were waiting in a queue at a supreme shop were interviewed and were asked why they liked supreme. Most people had no answer and a lot of them did not even know which collaboration was being released that day. This just goes too how the mindlessness of the herd. If everybody buys something, just to fit in, another person will.
The main reason behind herd formation is that people are afraid of social ostracism. We fear that if we do not buy these 'hype beast' items, them we will be looked down upon by our friends who will stop talking to us. As surprising as it sounds, it is true. Due to this, we see a bunch of kids in high school wasting their parents' hard earned money on these $1700 shoes.

The problem with us millennials is that we are too absorbed by others to remember who we are. there is absolutely no space for individuality and for personal exploration. We wan to be like each other and do everything everybody does, just so that we do not get ostracised. This is probably the same reason that you see a bunch of kids in any given school who nobody really talks to because they are very different from everybody. They do not go clubbing every weekend, they do not listen to noisy rap, they read plentiful books and do not drink alcohol or smoke herb. That is more or less every millennial in a nutshell. I salute those kids for being different and true to themselves
This leads me to ask: what are we missing?
The most important thing we miss is personal exploration. By this, I mean understanding oneself, one's strengths and weaknesses and how one can do well in life. Most people nowadays hesitate at what they will do in the future or who their idol is or what their favourite book is. Reading has no value anymore and those few who do read, read garbage. I mean no offence, but every teenage fiction is a recycled version of another novel. The essence of literature has truly lost its touch.

The only way to survive and be anything in life is to try to be different. this may seem easier said than done but it is essential. You'd could start this in small ways which will soon ingrain a certain mindset into you.
1) STOP BUYING GARBAGE.
2) Do not just do something because everybody is doing it because

If fifty million people do something wrong, it is still something wrong.

3) Try being different in everyday living too. Try dressing different, talking different, or even listening to different music

in conclusion, being different is very important today but is never spoken of. Everybody is a sheep and the herd is led by a foolish shepherd towards a wolf. A wolf here is the end of the world.
So, instead of wasting $10,000 on a pair of Human Races, you'd rather buy your mumma a cute purse or a yourself a new book

 

TOO LESS>TOO MUCH

Consider these two presumptions:

A man who owns one penny is poor.

A man who owns one penny more than a poor man is also poor.

And consider this conclusion: 

A man who owns a trillion pennies is poor.

Does this conclusion make sense? 

Logically, it does not make any sense. Any man who owns a trillion pennies is very very rich. But, if you were to see the situation considering the two presumptions and with a mathematical mind, you will realise that the conclusion makes sense. A poor man is a man who also owns one more penny than the first. A man who has one more than the second poor man is also poor. A man who owns one more penny than the third poor man is also poor, and so on...

In this view, a man with any amount of pennies is poor. 

But this does not make any sense! If I have a trillion pennies, I'm very rich! But I'm also not!

This situation is called a paradox 

A paradox is a seemingly absurd or contradictory statement which when researched actually proves to be true?

A paradox can also be a contradiction in the general belief and a proven statement. For example, 2+2/2 is two but if you were to use BODMAS, then the answer will come to three. 

another very famous example is the paradox off choice.

we are often led to believe that the more options you have, the better your choice can be. Your career counsellor tells you to keep maximum options available while choosing a college. You prefer a plethora of mobile phones when buying a new phone. But what if I told you that your choice would be better if there would be 5 phones to choose from than 50?

This is true.

Lets say a shoe shop sells 500 pairs of shoes.You walk in and decide to buy one pair and begin choosing. You over over a few shoes among the sea of shoes on display. Most of the times, you will get confused and walk out of the shop empty handed. Have you ever been in such a situation?

Selection is the yardstick to progress and it is what differentiates us from planned economies and the Stone Age. But there is a limit of choices and when the limit is surpassed, the surfeit can often destroy the quality of life. 

A large number of choices ruin our decision making and make us choose an option which is not the best. This gets worse when the best option is actually hidden among a number of bad options. This was the case in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, when the villain was elated by the best decorated chalice and drank from it. There were a hundred chalices and the holy grail was hidden in the back. Had there been only ten, the chances of one finding the grail would have been better. Maybe not for the villain, but any other rational person. 

Think about what you want before making a choice. Inspect all the choices and preferably write your aim down. Never choose with the idea of choosing the best choice. There is no such choice as a perfect choice or best choice. Set your mind to settle for the good choice. Yes, even in the case of partners. Only the best will do? In this world of unlimited choices, a good choice is the new sexy.

Why a free meal is a SCAM

Have you ever been given a chocolate or a pen for free by a shopkeeper or a friend or a free dish at a restaurant? If yes, then chances are tat you must have immediately formed a soft spot for the other party and in a while did something for them like visited them again or bought a pen from them.
This is called reciprocity. Reciprocity essentially means that if somebody does something for you, you are inclined to do something for them in return, by conscience. It is more or less a favour for a favour.
Here's another example: a person offers to help you with your homework and you gladly agree. a few weeks later, he asks you for your research on the upcoming project which is not supposed to be shared. Chances are that you will, even unwillingly, share your information with that person. this is because you brain will sting up the memory of the person helping you in a time of need. SO, you helping him does not seem so much.

Reciprocity may seem like no big deal, but in the world, it can have a lot of consequences.
A small example is the Hare Krishna Society. Members of the Hare Krishna Society (HKS from now) often need donations. So, they roam around crowded places like airports, railway stations, parks and city squares looking for potential donors. They carry around small flowers and whenever they see anybody, they walk up to them, greet them and then give them the flower. They tell the person that the flower is a "gift from God" and that they should keep the flower. after a few minutes of talking to the person, they pitch their donation. More than often, it pays off and the person donates to HKC.
As you can see, the member of HKC first greets the prison and gives him a flower as a gift from God and then begins to chat with him. This is the favour. The flower is the gift given which triggers your conscience and makes you sympathetic to the HKC member. The member then talks to you for a while to embed the feeling of reciprocating the gift in you. Lastly, he asks you for a donation and your embedded conscience stirs and you remember his gift to you. Even, it may seem like a small gift which he gave you, it is still enough to donate a substantial amount of money to the HKC.

We are never able to judge the value a gift or a favour which leads us to reciprocate a larger amount. Here, the HKC member is wise and gave you something of a small monetary value but a large emotional value which in turn made you want to give him something of higher monetary value than something with a high emotional value because you don't really carry family heirlooms to give out at a railway station. The HKC member played his cards perfectly while your deck fell out of your hands.

The world is full of people like the HKC members. The best way to help yourself is to realise when your conscience acts up. From there you have to be able to differentiate it with emotion and your current position. Not returning a favour is fine. it is called "favour" for a reason.
So, if anybody does decide to give you a free meal or a drink, its best to avoid it, or even better, take it and run away.