Anchoring your brain

The other day I was asked this question- which year did Napoleon become emperor of France?
Despite being a history buff, I did not know the answer. but I could not accept defeat and attempted answer the question. I formulated a base educated idea that he was first exiled to Elba in 1814 (which is true). so he must have become king a few years ago at the very least because I had read several stories about his glorious reign and his bravery in battles. But I did not go as far back at the 1700s because the French Revolution had just ended and there was a lot of turmoil for at least a decade. so made a wild guess of 1802. I was two years off. 
Contemplating my failure, I came to realise that my whole 'thesis' arose from one main piece of knowledge that Napoleon was captured in 1814. Had I been wrong then, my whole reasoning would have tumbled down the hill. I came to realise that these base assumptions or 'anchors' are essential to any sort of educated guess or claim. 

An anchor is a bias which leads people to rely too much on the fist piece of information or the 'base', from which they make their final answer. The anchor can be compared to the foundations of a building. If the foundation is weak, no matter how well you build the rest of the building, your creation will collapse. similarly, if your anchor is wrong, your reasoning, no matter how perfect, will implode.

In one study, Nobel award winner Daniel Kahneman carried out a study where he tested a bunch of students with multiplication. They were asked to multiply the first 8 numbers from one onwards. The students were given 5 seconds to do so. After the first few multiplications, they had to guess the rest and make assumptions. since the sequence started with small numbers, the median they estimated was around 512. The correct answer was 40,320. The anchoring comes in here when after a first few multiplications, the students began making increasing adjustments on their answers. Almost all the answers answers were usually not sufficient and a great deal of importance was given to the anchor. 

It is said that before answering a question or making a base assumption as your anchor, one must at least have three source of information which are credible. So, back to the Napoleon question, apart from the abdication year, had I known the age he became emperor and the age when he abdicated, my answer would have been surely correct. 

Anchors are dangerous territory and do not let the grim sirens attract you to their jaws. Be careful treading in their paths and always have a back up no matter what. If you do not know the answer to a question, simply give up and say "I don't know" (benefits of that in my other blog -http://bagriaanjaneya.blogspot.in/2016/12/the-three-hardest-words-in-english.html)

everybody or nobody

Either everybody person does it or nobody does it.

 This is the famous statement made by several people on several matters, but what is the real meaning of this?We often feel awkward when ever we do something new, especially when we are with a group of friends who are also not used to doing nothing. We can often get criticised for doing it and can also be insulted. But why is this? 
This can be related to the fact that if something is new, everybody is sceptical about it. For examples, in Renaissance times, nobody supported the printing press or inventions or even any literature which was against the papal authority or against anything which the people at that time believed in. But there is always one person in the herd to come up with something new. More than often would he get ostracised for his actions. He could also get excommunicated. This is because not everybody is  in open to change. Nobody wants to go out of their way to discover something new or evil step out of the shell. We are lethargic and want everything handed to us. This is why when something new is first discovered, we are very sceptical and do not believe in its use. That is the same reason as to why several poets and alchemists have been persecuted and executed for their works. 
It is the ignorance that causes problems with society. But, let's not digress for this is a separate topic for a different day. 
When cars were introduced in India in 1826, nobody saw the use of a car. Everybody thought that the horse and carriage will be much better and much more officiant in the long run. But, when all the officials and the rich people started using cars instead of horses, everybody realised how useful they were and began using it as soon as possible. In another incident, when telephone and telegraph lines were introduced in India, people were very ignorant and did not think that it was good but thought that it would be used to hang prisoners. Little did they know that it would revolutionise the way of communication for ever.
This is the problem-we are never open to new things and always remain attached to the past and the simplistic ways of life. We never want to advance that even though progress is the goal, we stay relaxed without the thought  in mind about the future.

We should try to enjoy new experiences and not shoot them down the moment we hear new ideas. If we have a crazy idea, we should always be open to try it out for new experiences need to creativity which have led to the greatest of invention of all time. Even these 'happy' accidents I was out from creativity and trying a new experiences. We should truly be more progressive in our thinking and always look for a scope to advance and do better. Just because nobody is doing something, it doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. But definitely you should understand between doing something new and creative and doing something bad. there will always be people who try to bring you down but you have to move past that and only when you do so you can move up the stairs of glory.