The other day I was asked this question- which year did Napoleon become emperor of France?
Despite being a history buff, I did not know the answer. but I could not accept defeat and attempted answer the question. I formulated a base educated idea that he was first exiled to Elba in 1814 (which is true). so he must have become king a few years ago at the very least because I had read several stories about his glorious reign and his bravery in battles. But I did not go as far back at the 1700s because the French Revolution had just ended and there was a lot of turmoil for at least a decade. so made a wild guess of 1802. I was two years off.
Contemplating my failure, I came to realise that my whole 'thesis' arose from one main piece of knowledge that Napoleon was captured in 1814. Had I been wrong then, my whole reasoning would have tumbled down the hill. I came to realise that these base assumptions or 'anchors' are essential to any sort of educated guess or claim.
An anchor is a bias which leads people to rely too much on the fist piece of information or the 'base', from which they make their final answer. The anchor can be compared to the foundations of a building. If the foundation is weak, no matter how well you build the rest of the building, your creation will collapse. similarly, if your anchor is wrong, your reasoning, no matter how perfect, will implode.
In one study, Nobel award winner Daniel Kahneman carried out a study where he tested a bunch of students with multiplication. They were asked to multiply the first 8 numbers from one onwards. The students were given 5 seconds to do so. After the first few multiplications, they had to guess the rest and make assumptions. since the sequence started with small numbers, the median they estimated was around 512. The correct answer was 40,320. The anchoring comes in here when after a first few multiplications, the students began making increasing adjustments on their answers. Almost all the answers answers were usually not sufficient and a great deal of importance was given to the anchor.
It is said that before answering a question or making a base assumption as your anchor, one must at least have three source of information which are credible. So, back to the Napoleon question, apart from the abdication year, had I known the age he became emperor and the age when he abdicated, my answer would have been surely correct.
Anchors are dangerous territory and do not let the grim sirens attract you to their jaws. Be careful treading in their paths and always have a back up no matter what. If you do not know the answer to a question, simply give up and say "I don't know" (benefits of that in my other blog -http://bagriaanjaneya.blogspot.in/2016/12/the-three-hardest-words-in-english.html)
Despite being a history buff, I did not know the answer. but I could not accept defeat and attempted answer the question. I formulated a base educated idea that he was first exiled to Elba in 1814 (which is true). so he must have become king a few years ago at the very least because I had read several stories about his glorious reign and his bravery in battles. But I did not go as far back at the 1700s because the French Revolution had just ended and there was a lot of turmoil for at least a decade. so made a wild guess of 1802. I was two years off.
Contemplating my failure, I came to realise that my whole 'thesis' arose from one main piece of knowledge that Napoleon was captured in 1814. Had I been wrong then, my whole reasoning would have tumbled down the hill. I came to realise that these base assumptions or 'anchors' are essential to any sort of educated guess or claim.
An anchor is a bias which leads people to rely too much on the fist piece of information or the 'base', from which they make their final answer. The anchor can be compared to the foundations of a building. If the foundation is weak, no matter how well you build the rest of the building, your creation will collapse. similarly, if your anchor is wrong, your reasoning, no matter how perfect, will implode.
In one study, Nobel award winner Daniel Kahneman carried out a study where he tested a bunch of students with multiplication. They were asked to multiply the first 8 numbers from one onwards. The students were given 5 seconds to do so. After the first few multiplications, they had to guess the rest and make assumptions. since the sequence started with small numbers, the median they estimated was around 512. The correct answer was 40,320. The anchoring comes in here when after a first few multiplications, the students began making increasing adjustments on their answers. Almost all the answers answers were usually not sufficient and a great deal of importance was given to the anchor.
It is said that before answering a question or making a base assumption as your anchor, one must at least have three source of information which are credible. So, back to the Napoleon question, apart from the abdication year, had I known the age he became emperor and the age when he abdicated, my answer would have been surely correct.
Anchors are dangerous territory and do not let the grim sirens attract you to their jaws. Be careful treading in their paths and always have a back up no matter what. If you do not know the answer to a question, simply give up and say "I don't know" (benefits of that in my other blog -http://bagriaanjaneya.blogspot.in/2016/12/the-three-hardest-words-in-english.html)
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